Climate change and cattle production: an evaluation for Southeastern Buenos Aires, Argentina
Hernán A. Urcola1*, Julio C. Burges1, 2, Lucie Gouarderes3, y Silvina Solman4
There are no precise estimates available of the productive and economic impact of climate change effects on the cattle production in the Buenos Aires province. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change on the productive and economic performance of a representative cattle herd of Southeastern Buenos Aires. Given the nature of this research, a modeling approach using high resolution climatic data and reproductive parameters for a whole-cycle herd was used. The study site was located near the city of Balcarce. Climatic conditions for three periods of years were characterized and named as Historical, Near Future and Distant Future. Pasture production, meat production and gross margin were modeled. The results indicate that the region will experience an increase in minimum (maximum) average temperature of 2.6°C (1.9°C), and an increase of 27% in mean annual rainfall at the end of the twenty first century. Pasture production, meat production and gross margins would experience small changes and even tend to increase by the end of the century. Climatic conditions in the future periods analyzed do not pose a higher production risk when compared to the Historical period.
Key words: Climate change, cow-calf herd, productive and economic impact, Salado depression.
1 Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Ruta 226 km 73,5 (7620), Balcarce, Argentina.
2 Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Ruta 226 km 73,5 (7620), Balcarce, Argentina.
3 Universidad SUPAGRO, 2 Place Pierre Viala, 34060, Montpellier, Francia.
4 Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos DCAO-FCEN-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina; CONICET- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Instituto Franco Argentino de Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/ CNRS), Ciudad Universitaria, pabellón II, piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
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